China's Georgia War Lesson: Today's Breakaway Bites Back Later

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's military slap at Georgia may give China added justification to keep its own ethnic separatists in line.

The war plays to China's argument that it must keep ethnic regions firmly under control, lest they become autonomous enough to cause problems for the central government, as Georgia has done for Moscow since becoming a pro-Western democracy after protests in 2003 threw out a government friendlier to Russia.

To the Chinese, the Georgia conflict ``is all the result of the inability of Russian leaders to control their country, and allowing ethnic divisions to dominate'' after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, said Robert Ross, a professor at Boston College specializing in China and East Asia. ``So the lesson for China in this is that we must be all-the-more sure that we control our ethnic groups.''

With the heft to counter U.S. political and economic dominance since the Cold War ended, China has been wary about Washington's support for the former Soviet Union's so-called ``color revolutions'' -- Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution, Ukraine's 2004-2005 Orange Revolution and Kyrgyzstan's 2005 Tulip Revolution, named for the hues or flowers favored by street protesters.

China has attracted international censure for crackdowns in its Western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, where it says it faces separatist and terrorist movements. Attacks and bombings in Xinjiang this month have killed at least 16 police officers.

Revolutionary Momentum

``If color revolutions have formed a kind of momentum, first Russia, then Central Asia and then eventually this kind of wave of color revolutions will expand into China, and China will be the last one to stand against this kind of democratization movement,'' said Huang Jing, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute.

China probably views Russia's flexing of its military muscles as a mixed blessing, Ross said. While countering U.S. influence might benefit China, the resurgent strength of a one- time foe in 1969 border clashes and earlier parrying over Mongolia also is unsettling, he said. And, just as Georgia would like reassert authority over the pro-Moscow breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, China wants Taiwan back under its control.

``Is this a precedent for intervention that could be used to keep Taiwan out of China or separate Tibet from China?'' said Phil Deans, a professor of international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo. ``This dispute could cut either way for the Chinese, and so the safest thing to do is to remain silent.''

Low Profile

Since Russia sent troops into South Ossetia on Aug. 8, China has addressed the conflict publicly with three statements on its Foreign Ministry Web site, the longest just three sentences, calling for a peaceful resolution. China also kept a low profile during a United Nations debate on Georgia.

The conflict provides what China may consider a useful distraction after the months leading up to the Olympic Games in Beijing saw international protests over China's harsh treatment of Tibetans and other ethnic minorities and intolerance of political dissent, Huang said.

Last year, President George W. Bush met with Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, in Washington and has criticized China's crackdowns there. The U.S. Congress awarded the Tibetan the Congressional Gold Medal, its highest civilian award.

Uighur Activist

Bush used his trip to the opening ceremony of the Olympics to prod the Chinese on human rights and religious freedom. Last month, he met with an ethnic Uighur activist from Xinjiang, Rebiya Kadeer, at the White House.

``Everyone can see the real confrontation is not between Russia and Georgia, but between Russia and the U.S. and NATO,'' Huang said. ``In the big game, if there is resistance against the U.S. and their allies, it's kind of good news for China, because that means more maneuvering room in their role with the U.S.''

China has worked with Russia and former Soviet Central Asian nations to quell terrorism in that region, including in Xinjiang, where Muslim separatists want to create an independent East Turkistan.

One vehicle for cooperation is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The group, which includes China, Russia and the Central Asian nations, works on trade, energy, tourism, military exercises and, as one July statement put it, ``the fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism.''

U.S. Relations

The rulers of former Soviet states in Central Asia will assess their relations with the U.S. and likely avoid getting too close as a result of the Georgian conflict, said Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Moscow-based Institute of Middle Eastern Studies and president of the Russian Jewish Congress.

``They will still be free to pursue any relations that they want, until it steps on Russia's toes,'' Satanovsky said. ``In Central Asia, if you're not strong, you're no one and you will not be talked to.''

In contrast, everyone wants to talk to China.

``China actually feels they're the beneficiary of all this,'' Huang said. ``First, it highlights its soft power, its smart diplomacy. Second, China feels good because now the Russians are rolling back the so-called color revolutions.''