In early December, the Conference Board predicted that job losses could top 3 million by the middle of 2009. Now payroll declines appear likely to far exceed that mark this year — by one million jobs.

The business research group on Monday estimated the economy could lose 2 million more jobs this year on top of the roughly 2.6 million erased in 2008. That would be about 60% higher than the average job losses over the past five recessions (roughly 2%).

The prediction was based on the Conference Board’s employment trends index, which fell 1.6% to 99.6 in December, down almost 16% from a year earlier. “The continued deterioration. . .signals that no turnaround in the labor market is to be expected in the near future,” said senior economist Gad Levanon.

The measure, based on eight labor-market indicators, has been in decline for 17 months. The eight gauges are jobless claims, job openings, temporary-help hires and part-time workers due to economic reasons, all from the Labor Department; the Conference Board’s “jobs hard to get” reading; the National Federation of Independent Business’s calculation of the share of firms with positions they can’t fill right now; the Federal Reserve’s industrial production gauge; and the Commerce Department’s data on real manufacturing and trade sales. – Sudeep Reddy