One President, Two Nations

There are 'two Americas' -- one that watched the inauguration with hope, the other with skepticism.

by Charlie Cook

John Edwards was right when he spoke about there being "two Americas." The way Edwards framed it, there was an America of "haves" and an America of "have-nots." My version is a bit different. There is an America that watched with hope and excitement as Barack Obama took the oath of office to become the 44th president of the United States. And there is an America that watched with dread and skepticism.

In the first and much larger group, there are many people who have a deep appreciation for the historic nature of Obama's presidency and a sense that he is the right person for the job and will do well. A subset of this group is so worried about the nation's economic problems that they hope Obama succeeds even though they didn't vote for him.

The second group is profoundly pessimistic. Because of his race and education, Obama is very different from any of their friends, neighbors, or co-workers. The people in this group are deeply suspicious of his motives. Some are afraid that he will dismantle our nation's military and leave America vulnerable. Others fear he will tax away everything they worked hard to accumulate. It's not exactly that they want Obama to fail but more that they feel they have little reason to believe that he will succeed in a way that helps them personally. Voters in this group rarely support a Democrat for president, but their pessimism about this particular Democratic president is especially acute. I doubt that Obama will ever be able to win these people over. The bigger question is whether they will ever accept him as president.

Poll results over the past week are fascinating and confirm that the first group is substantially larger than the second. Gallup found that 83 percent of Americans approved of the way that Obama handled his transition, compared with 12 percent who disapproved. This favorable rating is significantly higher than those of Presidents-elect Clinton or George W. Bush. In two Gallup Polls taken after Election Day, Obama's approval numbers were 78 percent and 75 percent. Clinton's final pre-inaugural Gallup approval rating was 68 percent; Bush's was 61 percent.

In the recent Gallup Poll, 13 percent rated Obama's Cabinet appointments "outstanding," while 32 percent said they were "above average," and 38 percent said "average." Just 5 percent thought they were "poor." More important, 64 percent expressed confidence in Obama's ability to be a good president, a number that has averaged 66 percent over the past two and a half months. He also has a favorability rating of 78 percent; only 18 percent expressed an unfavorable view.

In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, taken before Inauguration Day, the public was deeply pessimistic: 26 percent believe that the country is headed in the right direction, and 59 percent say that it is on the wrong track. However, those results are notably more optimistic than the 12 to 16 percent "right direction" and 73 to 78 percent "wrong track" numbers in the NBC/WSJ surveys taken in September and October. The mood shift is particularly notable, given that the economy has gotten even worse during that period. The same January poll, taken by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, showed that 71 percent approved of the way Obama was "handling the transition and his preparations for becoming president." Just 14 percent disapproved. Those numbers were almost identical to December's results.

The NBC/WSJ poll gave respondents a list of seven possible changes in Washington and asked which two they would most like to see realized. Coming in first with 36 percent was "more honesty and integrity in Washington." Tied for second at 29 percent were "more working together by Democrats and Republicans in Washington" and "greater oversight of the financial institutions and business." Just behind with 28 percent was "more transparency and accountability in government." Much lower were "promoting higher moral values" (15 percent) and "improving America's image around the world" (13 percent). In last place at 10 percent was "more racial and religious understanding with a more united country."

Although Americans are clearly clamoring for more unity and bipartisanship in Washington, only 48 percent expect to see it. Almost as many people, 45 percent, think the divisiveness will continue.