Chávez Grabs Again for Life Tenure

Intimidation is on the rise as a referendum approaches.

By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY

When Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez last staged a referendum to give himself lifetime tenure, voters turned him down. That was only 13 months ago. Now he's trying again -- in a Feb. 15 referendum -- and this time he's far more desperate.

Demonstrators raise their hands in front of police during a protest in Caracas, Jan. 20.

Treasury reserves are dwindling, electricity blackouts are becoming commonplace, public security is deteriorating, and the finances of the state-owned oil monopoly, PdVSA, are in apparent disarray. There is little reason to think that the decline will be reversed any time soon.

If Mr. Chávez hopes to continue governing under the guise of democracy after 2013, when his term expires, he must get the constitution changed now. Cheating at the polls, as he has done in the past, is one thing. But it would be a far too obvious breach of law if he tried to run again in violation of the existing constitutional prohibition. Another referendum defeat would be devastating, which is why his supporters are pulling out all the stops, including a sharp increase in their use of political violence around the country.

Mary Anastasia O'Grady says Hugo Chavez is seeking lifetime tenure. (Feb. 2)

When Venezuelans cast their votes on Feb. 15 they will be answering just one question: Do you approve of changing five articles in the constitution so as to allow for the indefinite re-election of the president, legislators, governors and mayors?

The referendum question did not originally include legislators, governors and mayors. But when an earlier proposal asked for indefinite re-election only for the president, it met with widespread skepticism. So Mr. Chávez decided to widen the field in the hope of picking up support. Even so, everyone knows this is a referendum on the president.

The problem for Mr. Chávez may be that a majority of voters have already had enough of him, and this ballot gives them a chance to say so. Current economic and financial conditions do not favor the incumbent.

Venezuela imports most everything it consumes. The bill is paid with the foreign exchange earned through oil exports. But prices for Venezuelan crude are now below $40 per barrel, and the central bank has recently been asked to hand over $12 billion to a government development fund. The bank's international reserve position is now just below $30 billion -- if government figures can be believed.

The bank's position is not in crisis yet, but the rate at which reserves are shrinking is worrisome. If it continues, Venezuela could have trouble paying for its food. Mr. Chávez also has used the bank as his own political slush fund. His "democratic" survival depends heavily on largess for the poor masses and palm-greasing for not-so-poor political backers.

PdVSA dominates the nation's economy, and its problems can't help but bleed into other sectors. Two weeks ago, Dow Jones Newswires' Raul Gallegos reported that PdVSA owed its suppliers some $7.86 billion in September. Since then, things have only gotten worse. The Spanish-language news service Noticias Financieras reported on Thursday that the president of Venezuela's Association of Metallurgical and Mining Industries says 200 companies are affected by the failure of state enterprises to pay their suppliers -- and if the problem is not resolved, it could affect 25,000 to 30,000 jobs.

Humberto Calderón Berti, a former Venezuelan energy minister, put his finger on the source of the difficulties in an interview with the Mexican news service Notimex last week: "PdVSA's debt has gone from two billion dollars ten years ago to $20 billion, its production has fallen from 3.2 to 2.4 million barrels a day, and the refineries are running into operational problems."

PdVSA is but a symbol of the deterioration of Venezuelan competitiveness under Mr. Chávez, and Venezuelans are already feeling the economic hardship that this decline imposes. In the December 2007 referendum, many voters who fit the chavista demographic seem to have abstained, suggesting disillusionment with the Bolivarian revolution. To combat this malaise, Mr. Chávez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela is campaigning frantically. The party has said its workers will go "door-to-door," hold forums, and man subway exits in Caracas to get out the vote. This is in addition to Mr. Chávez's use of the bully pulpit on television.

Yet all indications are that Mr. Chávez doesn't think this will be enough. To his list of "tools" he has added intimidation.

In the past month, Chávez enforcers have been attacking student groups that are trying to rally Venezuelans to vote "no." Tear gas and rubber bullets have produced both physical injuries and rising fears of violence around the country. This could affect voter turnout. It also raises doubts about whether enough opposition observers can be mobilized to guard the vote on election night. If not, and Mr. Chávez "wins," things are likely to get a whole lot scarier.